The neutral pattern both in the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and in the atmospheric response is now well established, and most climate models indicate that this will be the case until the middle of spring at least.
As far as the oceans are concerned, it is worth noting that SSTs are still a little up on normal in the Coral Sea and around continental Australia and this would support a scenario of a little more rain potential than might normally occur in the neutral situation.
However, SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific are favoured to continue to fall slightly in coming months, thus moving further away from a La Nina type pattern.
In the atmosphere, the Southern Oscillation index is around +3, which is well within the neutral range but a little higher than a week or two ago.
Cloud patterns across the tropical Pacific are close to normal but the south east trade winds are again a little stronger than normal in the western Pacific, but this might be temporary.
Looking at other climate indicators, there is not a lot of guidance at the moment.
To the north, the next "pulse" of the Madden-Julian Oscillation has moved quite quickly into the Indian Ocean and it is likely to move eastwards across the tropical Australian region in the next two weeks.
At this time of year, above average rainfall is still slightly more likely to briefly develop near the tropical coast of the country but it can also act to strengthen the easterly winds on Queensland's tropical east coast, with an increase in showers right down the east coast.
To our south the Southern Annular Mode has moved to being slightly positive and may remain there for a week of two.
This might result stable weather over much of NSW with showers becoming a little more likely later in the period over Victoria.
Now to the west, where the importance of the Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to increase in coming weeks.
The IOD is currently neutral. It is a little unfortunate that climate models indicate the IOD is most likely to remain neutral during the first half of winter.
However, the slight majority of models support the prognosis that at least slightly negative IOD thresholds may be reached during winter or spring, which would be a positive sign for rainfall potential in south east Australia at those times.
The accuracy of IOD forecasts made during autumn is generally lower than at other times of the year, but improves in winter.
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