FARMERS will be increasingly looking at measuring soil fertility levels and using variable rate fertiliser application to ensure maximum bang for buck in light of the ongoing threat of shortages of supply caused by COVID-19.
Wes Lefroy, Rabobank agricultural analyst, said knowing fertility levels and where rates could be cut would be a valuable tool if farmers were unable to get their hands on as much nitrogen (N) as they would like.
"At present the supply chain is holding up, although there have been some delays, but that could change and farmers need to have workarounds in place," Mr Lefroy said.
He said there was strong demand for all crop inputs, spurred by one of the best breaks on the east coast in recent years.
There have been some delays in getting hold of chemical, primarily out of China, but generally it has been possible to get supplies of most major products.
Mr Lefroy said the nitrogen (N) story could be different as the focus was on the Middle East, rather than China.
"We will have to watch closely to see how those supply chains hold up in light of the virus."
"It's going to mean farmers really have to target where their N goes just in case it is difficult to get hold of supply and that will mean things like soil testing and plant tissue testing, to identify areas lacking in N, followed by variable rate application, which can help lessen the amount of fertiliser required, will help."
He said soil tests would be especially beneficial for those who have been through drought and then had good summer rain.
The ongoing dry could have seen N levels dip but on the flip side there could have been good mineralisation of organic nitrogen following the rain, meaning a test is critical to get a full handle on soil nutrient levels.
While farmers are generally unwilling to tinker with set rotations, Mr Lefroy said if concerns about supply of inputs get too great there may be some switching out of crops that need to be planted earlier, such as canola, in favour of options like cereals that allow growers time to wait for the inputs to arrive.
Mr Lefroy said the next six weeks was critical in terms of Australia's N supplies.
"We are now heading into the key importing period for urea in Australia," he said.
"On average, 60 per cent of our yearly imports of urea arrive on Australian shores during the April-July window.
"Australia typically imports 90 per cent of its total urea requirements, so we are heavily reliant on global supply chains," he said.
Mr Lefroy said while global prices had been declining since a brief spike in February prior to the coronavirus crisis, the fall in the Aussie dollar over the same period meant prices may rise slightly at a farmgate level.
"Taking into account the currency impact, local prices will remain slightly above average for the next three months," he said.