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For week 17 - 23 Feb 2020
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Weekly Market Overview

Indicative ICE 11 Prices
 
Season AUD/MT* Weekly Change
2019 500.79 2.47%
2020 489.25 2.65%
2021 454.43 0.79%
2022 439.15 0.43%
*These figures are indicative of available ICE 11 prices as at 24 February 2020 and reflect the weighted average AUD/mt price. The prices have been adjusted to include Over-the-Counter margin fees charged by banking institutions and so may differ from daily prices quoted by the ICE 11 Exchange and/or other Marketers of Growers' Economic Interest in Sugar. Values also do not account for any adjustments resulting from local Grower-Miller pricing arrangements. 

Sugar

  • The MAR20 contract is now closed and we are reporting on the MAY20 ICE#11 contract which is similarly trading around the 15 USc/lb level. It made its high at 15.20 USc/lb, low at 14.56 USc/lb and closed the reporting week at 15.12 USc/lb.
  • In Thailand, the forecast remains dry for the rest of March. Continuing drought conditions may have negative impacts on the future crop, which may result in low cane supply for next season as well. 
  • Crop forecasts in Pakistan and Mexico are falling which is widening the current supply deficit even further and potentially another factor to push Brazil into producing extra sugar when they start harvesting. 
  • Speculators remained positive by adding to their net long position for the 11th week in a row. The 18 February Commitment of Traders report showed an increase of 9,000 lots to a total of 158,000 lots net long. 

Currency

  • Negative sentiment returned as the Australian dollar bottomed-out to an 11-year low of 0.6586Aud/Usd on the back of returning Coronavirus fears and negative economic data. The Global Financial Crisis was the last time we saw the AUD dip below 66c.
  • Last Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released data showing unemployment rates unexpectedly rose from 5.1% to 5.3% in January. 
  • In the US, tech giant Apple announced it is unlikely to meet its Q1 revenue figures due to the impact of the coronavirus on its Chinese operations.
  • According to the World Health Organisation statistics, the coronavirus mortality rate has increased slightly to 3.1%
  • These factors have all put downward pressure on the Aussie dollar, making exporting goods (such as sugar) more attractive for Australians. 

Jargon Buster

What is the Commitment of Traders Report?
The Commitment of Traders Report is a weekly publication which describes the net holding of different market participant groups. It is important for us as it helps us understand the view of speculators in the market. 

QSL is Australia's largest and most experienced raw sugar marketer.

This report contains information of a general or summary nature. While all care is taken in the preparation of this report, the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the document is not guaranteed. The update on marketing and pricing activity does not constitute financial, investment advice. You should seek your own financial advice. Nothing contained in this report should be relied upon as a representation as to future matters. Information about past performance is not an indication of future performance. QSL does not accept any responsibility to any person for the decisions and actions taken by that person with respect to any of the information contained in this report. You have received this email as you are subscribed to receive newsletters and other marketing material from QSL. We take your privacy very seriously. View our Privacy Statement on QSL’s website. When you make enquiries of QSL or sign up for QSL news or information, you thereby consent to QSL collecting and using the personal information that you provide to QSL in the operation of QSL’s business, which may include direct marketing. You may opt out of this service at any time if you no longer wish to receive any communications from us by using the unsubscribe function at the bottom of this email.

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QSL · Level 12/348 Edward St · Brisbane, Queensland 4000 · Australia